Dune Raider

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.80

9,659 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $5.22 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.85%

218 openings, odds method

Variance

8.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

90.07%±44.86160 openings

30 days

81.85%±38.43218 openings

since tracking started

81.85%±38.43218 openings

43.0%89.3%135.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	160	90.07%±44.9	+0.0σ	odds
30d	218	81.85%±38.4	−0.4σ	odds
All	218	81.85%±38.4	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 218 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,237 2,060,825 BUX	2.4%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 101	$105 175,713 BUX	20.0%	2	2.2	0.93×
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$52.88 88,098 BUX	10.1%	1	2.2	0.46×
M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 50	$14.22 23,690 BUX	5.5%	5	4.4	1.15×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$12.60 20,991 BUX	7.2%	6	6.5	0.92×
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	13.0%	$4.27 7,113 BUX	10.6%	30	28.3	1.06×
Souvenir USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	15.0%	$3.34 5,564 BUX	9.6%	33	32.7	1.01×
P90 \| Desert Warfare (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	15.0%	$3.32 5,531 BUX	9.5%	25	32.7	0.76×
Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	50.0%	$2.61 4,348 BUX	25.0%	116	109.0	1.06×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$5.809,659 BUX$2.614,348 BUX0.45x1d

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$5.809,659 BUX$12.6020,991 BUX2.17x1d

Galil AR | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$5.809,659 BUX$2.614,348 BUX0.45x1d

Galil AR | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec GradeItsFILIP4EVER$5.809,659 BUX$2.614,348 BUX0.45x1d

Souvenir USP-S | Desert Tactical (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$5.809,659 BUX$3.345,564 BUX0.58x1d

P90 | Desert Warfare (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$5.809,659 BUX$3.325,531 BUX0.57x1d

Souvenir USP-S | Desert Tactical (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$5.809,659 BUX$3.345,564 BUX0.58x1d

Galil AR | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$5.809,659 BUX$2.614,348 BUX0.45x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:38 UTC	$5.80	90.00%	9

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%Industrial Grade 16.0%extraordinary 1.0%industrial 2.0%classified 3.0%Covert 13.0%Mil Spec Grade 65.0%best hit —