Winter's Wrath
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.56
22,593 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $12.21 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
54.70%
60 openings, odds method
Variance
107.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 38
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 60 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $4,436 7,390,425 BUX | 36.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Souvenir P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 40 | $77.54 129,181 BUX | 15.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 25 | $43.75 72,887 BUX | 14.3% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
| Sticker | DreamHack Winter 2014sticker · pink | 1 in 15 | $19.31 32,170 BUX | 10.3% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× |
| Galil AR | Winter Forest (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 13 | $14.08 23,457 BUX | 8.7% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| Winter Offensive Case Keyother · base | 12.0% | $6.40 10,662 BUX | 6.3% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 14.5% | $5.45 9,079 BUX | 6.5% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× |
| Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 52.9% | $0.40 666 BUX | 1.7% | 34 | 31.7 | 1.07× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Galil AR | Winter Forest (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade$13.5622,593 BUX$14.0823,457 BUX1.04x
Galil AR | Winter Forest (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade$13.5622,593 BUX$14.0823,457 BUX1.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $13.56 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%Mil Spec Grade 2.5%Classified 4.0%pink 6.5%Industrial Grade 7.5%base 12.0%restricted 14.5%mil spec 52.9%best hit —