Tidal Treasure
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.23
33,701 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $18.21 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
63.13%
71 openings, odds method
Variance
7.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 71 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 71 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir SG 553 | Waves Perforated (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 500 | $948 1,579,368 BUX | 10.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 125 | $301 502,065 BUX | 13.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $117 194,555 BUX | 16.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $113 187,624 BUX | 15.5% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× |
| Souvenir SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 25 | $77.65 129,364 BUX | 17.1% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.35× |
| StatTrak™ MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $9.06 15,093 BUX | 5.0% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× |
| 'Blueberries' Buckshot | NSWC SEALagent · violet | 11.0% | $7.04 11,728 BUX | 4.3% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.02× |
| StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 31.0% | $5.43 9,046 BUX | 9.2% | 19 | 22.0 | 0.86× |
| PP-Bizon | Seabird (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 38.0% | $4.46 7,430 BUX | 9.3% | 31 | 27.0 | 1.15× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$20.2333,701 BUX$5.439,046 BUX0.27x
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$20.2333,701 BUX$5.439,046 BUX0.27x
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedKronerkongen$20.2333,701 BUX$5.439,046 BUX0.27x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $20.23 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedConsumer Grade 0.2%classified 0.8%covert 5.0%mil spec 4.0%restricted 10.0%violet 11.0%Restricted 31.0%consumer 38.0%best hit —