Heavenly Horizon
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$24.28
40,456 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $21.85 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
52.57%
48 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 48 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Cloud9 (Holo) | DreamHack 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 100 | $381 635,362 BUX | 17.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 57 | $261 434,092 BUX | 20.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 36 | $146 242,619 BUX | 18.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| Sticker | Astralis (Foil) | Cologne 2016sticker · exotic | 12.5% | $38.13 63,524 BUX | 21.8% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× |
| MP9 | Storm (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 20.0% | $11.23 18,709 BUX | 10.3% | 12 | 9.6 | 1.25× |
| StatTrak™ XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 22.0% | $10.13 16,876 BUX | 10.2% | 13 | 10.6 | 1.23× |
| Sticker | Chicken of the Skysticker · high | 40.0% | $0.59 982 BUX | 1.1% | 17 | 19.2 | 0.89× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$24.2840,456 BUX$10.1316,876 BUX0.42x
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedkdeen$24.2840,456 BUX$10.1316,876 BUX0.42x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $24.28 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 1.0%restricted 1.8%covert 2.8%exotic 12.5%Consumer Grade 20.0%Restricted 22.0%high 40.0%best hit —