Celestial Sentinel
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.10
31,822 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $17.19 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.97%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
7.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $835 1,390,560 BUX | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| MP7 | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 200 | $398 663,251 BUX | 11.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $383 638,494 BUX | 11.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 26 | $145 241,703 BUX | 32.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ MP9 | Airlock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 20.5% | $19.87 33,103 BUX | 23.7% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $9.29 15,477 BUX | 13.5% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| Galil AR | Tuxedo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 49.5% | $0.80 1,332 BUX | 2.3% | 11 | 7.9 | 1.39× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MP9 | Airlock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$19.1031,822 BUX$19.8733,103 BUX1.04x
★ Ursus Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covertkdeen$19.1031,822 BUX$145241,703 BUX7.60x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $19.10 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%mil spec 0.5%covert 4.4%Classified 20.5%restricted 25.0%Mil Spec Grade 49.5%best hit —