Celestial Shadows
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.75
36,239 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $19.58 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.64%
88 openings, odds method
Variance
7.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 88 openings and 6.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 88 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 67 | $309 514,327 BUX | 23.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 67 | $308 513,911 BUX | 23.6% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| Souvenir PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 25 | $142 235,755 BUX | 28.9% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.14× |
| Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade | 15.0% | $18.04 30,054 BUX | 13.8% | 19 | 13.2 | 1.44× |
| FAMAS | Night Borre (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade | 20.0% | $4.29 7,147 BUX | 4.4% | 16 | 17.6 | 0.91× |
| MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 22.5% | $3.10 5,164 BUX | 3.6% | 16 | 19.8 | 0.81× |
| UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 35.5% | $1.12 1,865 BUX | 2.0% | 32 | 31.2 | 1.02× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade$21.7536,239 BUX$18.0430,054 BUX0.83x
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial GradeKronerkongen$21.7536,239 BUX$18.0430,054 BUX0.83x
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade$21.7536,239 BUX$18.0430,054 BUX0.83x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $21.75 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.5%Covert 1.5%Industrial Grade 19.0%Consumer Grade 20.0%Ancient 22.5%restricted 35.5%best hit —