Birthday Bash
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.46
34,087 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $18.41 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.98%
42 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 42 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 133 | $327 544,648 BUX | 13.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 67 | $199 331,034 BUX | 16.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 44 | $144 239,204 BUX | 17.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| Sticker | Happy (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · Exotic | 10.5% | $50.18 83,599 BUX | 28.6% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× |
| P2000 | Coach Class (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 22.0% | $14.64 24,390 BUX | 17.5% | 7 | 9.2 | 0.76× |
| PP-Bizon | Seabird (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade | 29.0% | $3.46 5,764 BUX | 5.4% | 10 | 12.2 | 0.82× |
| 10 Year Birthday Sticker Capsulecontainer · Base Grade | 34.0% | $0.76 1,266 BUX | 1.4% | 22 | 14.3 | 1.54× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $20.46 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%restricted 1.5%Exotic 10.5%industrial 22.0%Consumer Grade 29.0%Base Grade 34.0%best hit —