Arcane Secrets
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.72
27,863 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $15.05 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
58.63%
36 openings, odds method
Variance
8.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 36 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Covert | 1 in 400 | $553 921,397 BUX | 9.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $288 479,541 BUX | 19.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 57 | $195 324,370 BUX | 22.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 20 | $58.84 98,027 BUX | 19.5% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× |
| Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $13.08 21,791 BUX | 10.4% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.62× |
| Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil)sticker · exotic | 12.0% | $12.96 21,591 BUX | 10.3% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6 | 18.0% | $5.79 9,646 BUX | 6.9% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× |
| StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 50.0% | $0.55 916 BUX | 1.8% | 18 | 18.0 | 1.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$16.7227,863 BUX$0.55916 BUX0.03x
StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$16.7227,863 BUX$0.55916 BUX0.03x
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedkdeen$16.7227,863 BUX$13.0821,791 BUX0.78x
StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$16.7227,863 BUX$0.55916 BUX0.03x
StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$16.7227,863 BUX$0.55916 BUX0.03x
StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$16.7227,863 BUX$0.55916 BUX0.03x
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6kdeen$16.7227,863 BUX$5.799,646 BUX0.35x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$16.7227,863 BUX$58.8498,027 BUX3.52x
StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$16.7227,863 BUX$0.55916 BUX0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $16.72 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 2.0%classified 13.0%Classified 5.0%exotic 12.0%#d32ee6 18.0%Mil Spec Grade 50.0%best hit —