Urban Assault

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$31.78

52,940 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $28.60 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

106.83%

19 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

17 openings · below min

30 days

19 openings · below min

since tracking started

19 openings · below min

43.5%114.5%185.5%

Small sample. 19 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	17	118.48%±66.3	—	odds
30d	19	106.83%±62.7	—	odds
All	19	106.83%±62.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 1,000	$408 680,011 BUX	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert	1 in 250	$211 351,792 BUX	3.0%	0	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 67	$182 302,412 BUX	9.5%	1	0.3	—
MAG-7 \| Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$124 207,083 BUX	13.0%	0	0.6	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert	1 in 17	$87.99 146,591 BUX	18.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 14	$81.64 136,012 BUX	20.0%	3	1.3	2.26×
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 13	$79.91 133,130 BUX	22.4%	2	1.5	1.32×
Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade	15.0%	$15.11 25,173 BUX	7.9%	2	2.9	0.70×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	20.0%	$3.67 6,114 BUX	2.6%	6	3.8	1.58×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	39.0%	$1.30 2,165 BUX	1.8%	5	7.4	0.67×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.