Graveyard Shift
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.98
19,966 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $10.79 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.35%
363 openings, odds method
Variance
11.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 363 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $853 1,421,431 BUX | 7.9% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| Sticker | ESL Skull (Foil) | Katowice 2014sticker · Exotic | 1 in 333 | $437 727,408 BUX | 12.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $109 182,177 BUX | 15.2% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 29 | $64.42 107,323 BUX | 20.9% | 15 | 12.7 | 1.18× |
| P250 | Undertow (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified | 1 in 20 | $30.90 51,479 BUX | 14.3% | 16 | 18.2 | 0.88× |
| MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 1 in 14 | $19.52 32,520 BUX | 12.7% | 25 | 25.4 | 0.98× |
| Sawed-Off | Devourer (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 22.6% | $3.40 5,664 BUX | 7.1% | 86 | 82.0 | 1.05× |
| StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 26.0% | $2.37 3,948 BUX | 5.7% | 89 | 94.4 | 0.94× |
| G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 34.0% | $1.27 2,115 BUX | 4.0% | 128 | 123.4 | 1.04× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertKronerkongen$11.9819,966 BUX$8531,421,431 BUX71.19x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$11.9819,966 BUX$2.373,948 BUX0.20x
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$11.9819,966 BUX$2.373,948 BUX0.20x
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$11.9819,966 BUX$2.373,948 BUX0.20x
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedPuzamah$11.9819,966 BUX$2.373,948 BUX0.20x
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$11.9819,966 BUX$2.373,948 BUX0.20x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $11.98 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.6%Exotic 0.3%Covert 3.5%Classified 31.0%blue 7.0%classified 56.6%best hit $853 (71.19x)