Nature's Nook
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.32
12,197 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $6.59 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
55.47%
129 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (25.38% – 85.55%, 129 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 129 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $96.69 161,085 BUX | 14.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| Souvenir USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 50 | $58.08 96,761 BUX | 17.6% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| XM1014 | Grassland (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 33 | $27.87 46,431 BUX | 12.7% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| Souvenir P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 10.0% | $10.59 17,642 BUX | 16.1% | 13 | 12.9 | 1.01× |
| P2000 | Grassland Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 14.0% | $7.27 12,111 BUX | 15.4% | 25 | 18.1 | 1.38× |
| MP7 | Tall Grass (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 30.0% | $2.52 4,198 BUX | 11.5% | 45 | 38.7 | 1.16× |
| P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade | 40.0% | $1.98 3,298 BUX | 12.0% | 46 | 51.6 | 0.89× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$7.3212,197 BUX$10.5917,642 BUX1.45x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.32 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 1.0%Industrial Grade 42.0%Consumer Grade 13.0%industrial 44.0%best hit —