Shadow Strike
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$85.78
142,908 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $77.20 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
60.38%
30 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
45.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 30 openings and 13.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $1,334 2,223,177 BUX | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 143 | $828 1,379,814 BUX | 7.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 25 | $171 284,369 BUX | 8.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Foil) | DreamHack 2014sticker · Exotic | 1 in 13 | $139 231,524 BUX | 13.5% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| ★ Shadow Daggersknife · covert | 1 in 13 | $126 210,599 BUX | 12.3% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · Remarkable | 25.0% | $81.19 135,262 BUX | 26.3% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.93× |
| Glock-18 | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 55.0% | $37.04 61,708 BUX | 26.4% | 22 | 16.5 | 1.33× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · Remarkable$85.78142,908 BUX$81.19135,262 BUX0.95x
Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · RemarkableDOLLER. CHONG$85.78142,908 BUX$81.19135,262 BUX0.95x
Glock-18 | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrialDOLLER. CHONG$85.78142,908 BUX$37.0461,708 BUX0.43x
Glock-18 | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrialDOLLER. CHONG$85.78142,908 BUX$37.0461,708 BUX0.43x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $85.78 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.5%Covert 4.0%Exotic 7.5%Remarkable 25.0%industrial 55.0%best hit —