Crystal Clear
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.70
21,164 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $11.43 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
40.18%
96 openings, odds method
Variance
14.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 96 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 96 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $564 939,890 BUX | 24.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 67 | $231 384,429 BUX | 30.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| USP-S | Royal Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 1 in 13 | $12.87 21,441 BUX | 9.0% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× |
| AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $9.16 15,260 BUX | 8.0% | 7 | 9.6 | 0.73× |
| Sticker | Infinite Diamond (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 20.0% | $5.33 8,879 BUX | 9.3% | 20 | 19.2 | 1.04× |
| PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $5.18 8,629 BUX | 9.1% | 24 | 19.2 | 1.25× |
| Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable | 40.0% | $2.76 4,598 BUX | 9.7% | 38 | 38.4 | 0.99× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $12.70 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.5%extraordinary 1.5%industrial 8.0%restricted 30.0%Remarkable 20.0%remarkable 40.0%best hit —