Verdant Decay
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$375.42
625,447 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $337.88 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
199.78%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secret Agent's Uranium Coin (Uranium)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 200 | $3,200 5,331,200 BUX | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Rock Of Jade (Silica Mineral)other · Covert | 1 in 100 | $3,169 5,279,160 BUX | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Fountain of Fortune (Fluorite)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 40 | $2,700 4,498,200 BUX | 20.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| Precious Stone of Onyx (Gemstone)other · Classified | 16.0% | $684 1,140,258 BUX | 32.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Lots Of Gems Of Emerald (Gemstone)other · Covert | 20.0% | $251 418,000 BUX | 14.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| Antique Uranium Marble Set (Uranium)other · Industrial Grade | 25.0% | $140 233,240 BUX | 10.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| Vintage Uranium Glass Vase (Uranium)other · Consumer Grade | 35.0% | $80.00 133,280 BUX | 8.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Fountain of Fortune (Fluorite)other · Exceedingly RarePaper Bag$375625,447 BUX$2,7004,498,200 BUX7.19x
Latest dropsnewest first
Fountain of Fortune (Fluorite)other · Exceedingly RarePaper Bag$375625,447 BUX$2,7004,498,200 BUX7.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $375 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExceedingly Rare 3.0%Covert 21.0%Classified 16.0%Industrial Grade 25.0%Consumer Grade 35.0%best hit $2,700 (7.19x)