Secrets of Stealth
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$314.79
524,444 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $283.31 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
4.77%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
10.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyramid of Power (Palladium)other · Special | 1 in 100 | $8,995 14,985,670 BUX | 31.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Secret Agent's Uranium Coin (Uranium)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 33 | $3,200 5,331,200 BUX | 33.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Pieces Of Bamboo (Wood)other · Classified | 1 in 13 | $749 1,248,000 BUX | 19.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Origami Swan (Tungsten)other · Exceedingly Rare | 12.5% | $220 366,520 BUX | 9.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| 1oz Silver bullet (Silver)other · Mil Spec Grade | 17.5% | $25.00 41,650 BUX | 1.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| Silver Serpentother · Mil Spec Grade | 18.5% | $21.00 34,986 BUX | 1.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Dagger (Diamond)other · Mil Spec Grade | 19.5% | $15.50 25,823 BUX | 1.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| Arrow (Amethyst)other · Consumer Grade | 20.5% | $11.70 19,492 BUX | 0.8% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $315 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedSpecial 1.0%Exceedingly Rare 15.5%Classified 7.5%Mil Spec Grade 55.5%Consumer Grade 20.5%best hit —