High Stakes
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$848.19
1,413,086 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $763.37 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
5.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suspect's Gold Watch (Gold)other · Special | 1 in 1,000 | $50K 83,300,000 BUX | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Lots Of Bars Of Gold (Metal)other · Classified | 1 in 40 | $7,263 12,100,000 BUX | 23.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Secret Agent's Uranium Coin (Uranium)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 20 | $3,200 5,331,200 BUX | 20.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Lots Of Bars Of Palladium (Metal)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 15 | $1,079 1,796,940 BUX | 9.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Jewel of Jotunheim (Jade)other · Exceedingly Rare | 10.0% | $850 1,416,100 BUX | 11.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Prism (Platinum)other · Classified | 15.0% | $599 997,934 BUX | 11.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli)other · Mil Spec Grade | 18.0% | $375 624,750 BUX | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Palace Pendant (Peridot)other · Covert | 20.0% | $200 333,200 BUX | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Playing Cards (Titanium)other · Covert | 23.0% | $98.00 163,268 BUX | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $848 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedSpecial 0.1%Classified 17.5%Exceedingly Rare 14.9%Mil Spec Grade 24.5%Covert 43.0%