Warzone Mystery
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.76
14,590 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $7.88 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.97%
113 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 113 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grail (Garnet)other · Restricted | 1 in 100 | $44.00 73,304 BUX | 5.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| Chalice (Cobalt)other · Consumer Grade | 1 in 67 | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 8.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× |
| Harp (Heliodor)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 50 | $40.00 66,640 BUX | 10.1% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× |
| Golden Grimoireother · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 33 | $20.00 33,320 BUX | 7.6% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× |
| Gems of Amethyst (Gemstone)other · Covert | 1 in 20 | $17.63 29,375 BUX | 11.2% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.42× |
| Dagger (Diamond)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 13 | $15.50 25,823 BUX | 14.7% | 2 | 8.5 | 0.24× |
| Knuckles (Brass)other · Restricted | 10.0% | $12.00 19,992 BUX | 15.2% | 14 | 11.3 | 1.24× |
| Lots Of Coins Of Brass (Metal)other · Consumer Grade | 70.0% | $3.08 5,124 BUX | 27.3% | 78 | 79.1 | 0.99× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $8.76 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRestricted 11.0%Consumer Grade 71.5%Industrial Grade 2.0%Mil Spec Grade 10.5%Covert 5.0%best hit —