Discovery Dilemma
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$793.99
1,322,794 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $714.59 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
9.70%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
23.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treasure Map (Emerald)other · Special | 1 in 2,000 | $150K 249,900,000 BUX | 10.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Tiara (Tourmaline)other · Covert | 1 in 222 | $25K 41,650,000 BUX | 15.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Zirconium Zenith Zigguratother · Special | 1 in 40 | $5,000 8,330,000 BUX | 17.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Fountain of Fortune (Fluorite)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 25 | $2,700 4,498,200 BUX | 15.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Throne of Thor (Topaz)other · Special | 1 in 20 | $1,500 2,499,000 BUX | 10.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Gauntlet of Galaxies (Garnet)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 14 | $1,250 2,082,500 BUX | 12.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor)other · Special | 1 in 13 | $1,000 1,666,000 BUX | 10.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Dice (Tungsten)other · Industrial Grade | 73.5% | $77.00 128,282 BUX | 7.9% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.36× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $794 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedSpecial 15.1%Covert 0.4%Exceedingly Rare 11.0%Industrial Grade 73.5%best hit —