Lunar Larceny
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$175.30
292,054 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $157.77 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
204.24%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocks Of Moonstone (Silica Mineral)other · Covert | 1 in 1,000 | $4,044 6,736,500 BUX | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Lots Of Portions Of Meteorite (Debris)other · Special | 1 in 250 | $2,465 4,105,920 BUX | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Prism (Adamantium)other · Covert | 1 in 50 | $720 1,200,000 BUX | 9.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| Pegasus Prism (Pearl)other · Covert | 1 in 33 | $700 1,166,200 BUX | 13.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Prism (Platinum)other · Classified | 1 in 18 | $599 997,934 BUX | 20.9% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| Pendant (Platinum)other · Restricted | 10.0% | $235 391,510 BUX | 14.9% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| Cube (Tungsten)other · Restricted | 12.0% | $199 331,534 BUX | 15.1% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Halo (Heliodor)other · Industrial Grade | 67.0% | $42.00 69,972 BUX | 17.8% | 1 | 5.4 | 0.19× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $175 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 5.1%Special 0.4%Classified 5.5%Restricted 22.0%Industrial Grade 67.0%best hit $720 (4.11x)