Silver Sleuth
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.77
21,279 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $11.50 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.19%
71 openings, odds method
Variance
4.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 71 openings and 12.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 71 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bars Of Silver (Metal)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 67 | $234 389,280 BUX | 30.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| 1oz Silver bullet (Silver)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 29 | $25.00 41,650 BUX | 7.6% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.01× |
| Silver Serpentother · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 20 | $21.00 34,986 BUX | 9.1% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| Silvered Sapphire Satchelother · Industrial Grade | 1 in 13 | $17.00 28,322 BUX | 11.1% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.13× |
| Sarcophagus (Silver)other · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $13.40 22,324 BUX | 11.7% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× |
| Silver-ish Sunhatother · Industrial Grade | 12.5% | $12.00 19,992 BUX | 13.0% | 6 | 8.9 | 0.68× |
| Silver Sunflowerother · Consumer Grade | 60.0% | $3.25 5,415 BUX | 17.0% | 44 | 42.6 | 1.03× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $12.77 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMil Spec Grade 10.0%Industrial Grade 30.0%Consumer Grade 60.0%best hit —