Aurora Allegory
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$104.13
173,479 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $93.72 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
63.50%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
32.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earring (Emerald)other · Restricted | 1 in 2,000 | $25K 41,650,000 BUX | 13.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Amulet of Atlantis (Amethyst)other · Special | 1 in 667 | $3,884 6,470,694 BUX | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Jewel of Jotunheim (Jade)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 125 | $850 1,416,100 BUX | 7.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Prism (Platinum)other · Classified | 1 in 67 | $599 997,934 BUX | 9.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Astral Amulet (Alexandrite)other · Restricted | 1 in 40 | $450 749,700 BUX | 12.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 22 | $375 624,750 BUX | 18.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| Palace Pendant (Peridot)other · Covert | 1 in 15 | $200 333,200 BUX | 13.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Amulet (Amethyst)other · Consumer Grade | 42.0% | $22.00 36,652 BUX | 9.9% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.19× |
| Amulet (Alexandrite)other · Consumer Grade | 42.0% | $22.00 36,652 BUX | 9.9% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $104 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRestricted 2.6%Special 0.1%Exceedingly Rare 0.8%Classified 1.5%Mil Spec Grade 4.5%Covert 6.5%Consumer Grade 84.0%best hit —