Soft Suspicions
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26.08
43,444 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $23.47 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.83%
36 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 36 openings and 6.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Origami Swan (Tungsten)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 100 | $220 366,520 BUX | 9.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Adamantium Featherother · Consumer Grade | 1 in 40 | $143 238,238 BUX | 15.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Lots Of Gems Of Zircon (Quartz)other · Classified | 1 in 15 | $82.72 137,808 BUX | 22.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.85× |
| Bangle (Beryl)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 13 | $28.00 46,648 BUX | 9.5% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× |
| Oculus (Opal)other · Restricted | 1 in 11 | $19.00 31,654 BUX | 7.3% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× |
| Gold-sprinkled Gloveother · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $17.50 29,155 BUX | 7.5% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× |
| Gilded Gemstone Goggles (Gemstone)other · Industrial Grade | 11.0% | $15.25 25,407 BUX | 7.1% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.51× |
| Glittering Glove (Aluminium)other · Classified | 52.0% | $9.50 15,827 BUX | 21.0% | 21 | 18.7 | 1.12× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $26.08 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExceedingly Rare 1.0%Consumer Grade 2.5%Classified 58.5%Industrial Grade 29.0%Restricted 9.0%best hit —