Ceremony Chaos
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$56.91
94,804 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $51.21 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
52.26%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruby-Encrusted Daggerother · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 500 | $770 1,282,820 BUX | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Palladium Palaceother · Covert | 1 in 125 | $445 741,370 BUX | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 100 | $375 624,750 BUX | 7.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Shards Of Diamond (Gemstone)other · Special | 1 in 67 | $275 457,500 BUX | 8.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Tiny tiara (Diamond)other · Classified | 1 in 29 | $149 248,234 BUX | 10.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Golden Keyother · Classified | 1 in 13 | $88.00 146,608 BUX | 13.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Pearl Prism Pendantother · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $76.00 126,616 BUX | 14.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| Crown (Cobalt)other · Industrial Grade | 15.0% | $44.00 73,304 BUX | 12.9% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| Zen Garden (Zirconium)other · Consumer Grade | 20.0% | $28.00 46,648 BUX | 10.9% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| Lots Of Coins Of Bronze (Metal)other · Mil Spec Grade | 40.0% | $15.48 25,784 BUX | 12.1% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $56.91 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExceedingly Rare 0.2%Covert 0.8%Mil Spec Grade 41.0%Special 1.5%Classified 11.5%Industrial Grade 25.0%Consumer Grade 20.0%best hit —