Spooky Secrets
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22.89
38,128 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $20.60 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.15%
54 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 54 openings and 10.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titan Totem (Titanium)other · Special | 1 in 100 | $300 499,800 BUX | 14.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Oracle Orb (Obsidian)other · Restricted | 1 in 50 | $165 274,890 BUX | 16.0% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.78× |
| Playing Cards (Titanium)other · Covert | 1 in 33 | $98.00 163,268 BUX | 14.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| Gauntlet (Garnet)other · Restricted | 14.0% | $24.00 39,984 BUX | 16.3% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× |
| Copper Kettleother · Restricted | 15.0% | $18.98 31,621 BUX | 13.8% | 6 | 8.1 | 0.74× |
| Amalgam (Amber)other · Mil Spec Grade | 17.5% | $12.00 19,992 BUX | 10.2% | 7 | 9.5 | 0.74× |
| Runestone (Ruby)other · Industrial Grade | 20.0% | $7.00 11,662 BUX | 6.8% | 18 | 10.8 | 1.67× |
| Relic (Ruby)other · Industrial Grade | 27.5% | $6.00 9,996 BUX | 8.0% | 13 | 14.9 | 0.88× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $22.89 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedSpecial 1.0%Restricted 31.0%Covert 3.0%Mil Spec Grade 17.5%Industrial Grade 47.5%best hit —