Melodic Mystery
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$46.41
77,316 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $41.77 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.27%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Musical Flute (Mythril)other · Restricted | 1 in 100 | $599 997,934 BUX | 14.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Sunburst Scepter (Sapphire)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 25 | $135 224,910 BUX | 12.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| Coffee Mug (Sapphire)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 20 | $130 216,580 BUX | 15.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| Playing Cards (Titanium)other · Covert | 1 in 13 | $98.00 163,268 BUX | 18.8% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| Figurine (Fluorite)other · Mil Spec Grade | 10.0% | $46.00 76,636 BUX | 11.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| Iridium Idolother · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $46.00 76,636 BUX | 11.0% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.50× |
| Harp (Heliodor)other · Industrial Grade | 15.0% | $40.00 66,640 BUX | 14.4% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| Lots Of Coins Of Silver (Metal)other · Mil Spec Grade | 47.0% | $1.78 2,968 BUX | 2.0% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.71× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $46.41 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRestricted 1.0%Mil Spec Grade 61.0%Industrial Grade 30.0%Covert 8.0%best hit —