Colorful Conspiracy
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$116.09
193,398 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $104.48 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
499.17%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
6.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precious Stones of Zircon (Quartz)other · Classified | 1 in 1,000 | $6,687 11,140,800 BUX | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Precious Stone of Emerald (Gemstone)other · Covert | 1 in 250 | $2,265 3,772,725 BUX | 8.7% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| Precious Stone of Amethyst (Gemstone)other · Covert | 1 in 40 | $888 1,479,325 BUX | 21.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Precious Stone of Aquamarine (Gemstone)other · Classified | 1 in 20 | $452 752,500 BUX | 21.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Precious Stone of Zircon (Quartz)other · Classified | 1 in 14 | $292 486,816 BUX | 19.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Lots Of Gems Of Citrine (Quartz)other · Classified | 15.0% | $73.71 122,805 BUX | 10.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Rock Of Aventurine (Silica Mineral)other · Mil Spec Grade | 70.0% | $17.77 29,600 BUX | 11.9% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Rock Of Aventurine (Silica Mineral)other · Mil Spec GradePaper Bag$116193,398 BUX$17.7729,600 BUX0.15x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $116 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 27.1%Covert 2.9%Mil Spec Grade 70.0%best hit $2,265 (19.51x)