Echoes of Pain
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39.14
65,214 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $35.23 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
47.11%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precious Stone of Ruby (Gemstone)other · Covert | 1 in 200 | $797 1,327,750 BUX | 11.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Ruby-Infused Wine Gobletother · Covert | 1 in 67 | $350 583,100 BUX | 14.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Radiance Ring (Ruby)other · Classified | 1 in 13 | $90.00 149,940 BUX | 20.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| Wire Sculpture (Copper)other · Covert | 10.0% | $69.00 114,954 BUX | 19.6% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| Grail (Garnet)other · Restricted | 15.0% | $44.00 73,304 BUX | 18.7% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| Gauntlet (Garnet)other · Restricted | 20.0% | $24.00 39,984 BUX | 13.6% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.67× |
| Grains (Garnet)other · Consumer Grade | 45.0% | $1.10 1,833 BUX | 1.4% | 9 | 8.1 | 1.11× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $39.14 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 12.0%Classified 8.0%Restricted 35.0%Consumer Grade 45.0%best hit —