Obscured Origins
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$35.01
58,321 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $31.51 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
228.99%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 20 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miniature Mythril Shield (Mythril)other · Classified | 1 in 1,000 | $999 1,664,334 BUX | 3.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| Chef's knife (Adamantium)other · Restricted | 1 in 250 | $549 914,634 BUX | 7.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Titan Totem (Titanium)other · Special | 1 in 67 | $300 499,800 BUX | 14.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Origami Swan (Tungsten)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 50 | $220 366,520 BUX | 14.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Adamantium Featherother · Consumer Grade | 1 in 33 | $143 238,238 BUX | 13.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| Playing Cards (Titanium)other · Covert | 1 in 14 | $98.00 163,268 BUX | 21.8% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.14× |
| Dice (Tungsten)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 11 | $77.00 128,282 BUX | 22.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| Coins Of Steel (Metal)other · Mil Spec Grade | 77.0% | $1.73 2,880 BUX | 4.2% | 14 | 15.4 | 0.91× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $35.01 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 0.1%Restricted 0.4%Special 1.5%Exceedingly Rare 2.0%Consumer Grade 3.0%Covert 7.0%Industrial Grade 9.0%Mil Spec Grade 77.0%best hit $999 (28.54x)