Confidential Crisis
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$62.03
103,334 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $55.82 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
198.24%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor)other · Special | 1 in 200 | $1,000 1,666,000 BUX | 9.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| Coin (Gold)other · Covert | 1 in 100 | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 11.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Bars Of Gold (Metal)other · Classified | 1 in 67 | $567 945,230 BUX | 15.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Palace Pendant (Peridot)other · Covert | 1 in 22 | $200 333,200 BUX | 16.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| Golden Keyother · Classified | 10.0% | $88.00 146,608 BUX | 15.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| Griffin Goblet (Gold)other · Classified | 12.5% | $75.00 124,950 BUX | 16.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| Small Nugget (Gold)other · Restricted | 15.5% | $47.00 78,302 BUX | 13.1% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.15× |
| Bracelet (Brass)other · Industrial Grade | 54.5% | $2.50 4,165 BUX | 2.4% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.76× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $62.03 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedSpecial 0.5%Covert 5.5%Classified 24.0%Restricted 15.5%Industrial Grade 54.5%best hit $1,000 (16.12x)