Nebula Noir
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$53.54
89,202 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $48.19 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.06%
14 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 14 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precious Stone of Sapphire (Gemstone)other · Classified | 1 in 667 | $1,623 2,703,750 BUX | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Bracelet (Sapphire)other · Classified | 1 in 286 | $890 1,482,740 BUX | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Labyrinth (Lapis Lazuli)other · Restricted | 1 in 200 | $537 894,642 BUX | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 80 | $375 624,750 BUX | 9.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Sunburst Scepter (Sapphire)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 13 | $135 224,910 BUX | 21.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| Coffee Mug (Sapphire)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 13 | $130 216,580 BUX | 21.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× |
| Chalice (Cobalt)other · Consumer Grade | 22.0% | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 19.6% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.62× |
| Shards Of Zircon (Quartz)other · Classified | 60.0% | $8.24 13,728 BUX | 10.3% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $53.54 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 60.5%Restricted 0.5%Mil Spec Grade 9.0%Industrial Grade 8.0%Consumer Grade 22.0%best hit —