Illusory Impostors
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.98
16,631 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $8.98 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
128.58%
96 openings, odds method
Variance
11.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 96 openings and 4.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 96 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precious Stone of Zircon (Quartz)other · Classified | 1 in 10,000 | $1,840 3,065,568 BUX | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Origami Swan (Tungsten)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 204 | $220 366,520 BUX | 12.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| Coin From The Lost City (Mythril)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 133 | $199 331,534 BUX | 16.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| Pearl Prism Pendantother · Industrial Grade | 1 in 57 | $76.00 126,616 BUX | 14.8% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.79× |
| Mermaid's Pearl Earring (Pearl)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 50 | $72.00 119,952 BUX | 16.0% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.08× |
| Figurine (Fluorite)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 20 | $46.00 76,636 BUX | 25.6% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× |
| Arrowhead (Aquamarine)other · Consumer Grade | 40.0% | $2.40 3,998 BUX | 10.7% | 40 | 38.4 | 1.04× |
| Crystal (Quartz)other · Consumer Grade | 50.0% | $0.40 666 BUX | 2.2% | 43 | 48.0 | 0.90× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $9.98 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 0.0%Exceedingly Rare 0.5%Mil Spec Grade 7.8%Industrial Grade 1.8%Consumer Grade 90.0%best hit —