Sword and Scandal
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$76.84
128,008 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $69.15 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
113.59%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruby-Encrusted Daggerother · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 100 | $770 1,282,820 BUX | 11.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Chef's knife (Adamantium)other · Restricted | 1 in 40 | $549 914,634 BUX | 19.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Palladium Palaceother · Covert | 1 in 29 | $445 741,370 BUX | 22.5% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| Tiny tiara (Diamond)other · Classified | 1 in 13 | $149 248,234 BUX | 16.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| Golden Keyother · Classified | 10.0% | $88.00 146,608 BUX | 12.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× |
| Knife (Aquamarine)other · Mil Spec Grade | 17.5% | $18.25 30,405 BUX | 4.6% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× |
| Dagger (Diamond)other · Mil Spec Grade | 29.0% | $15.50 25,823 BUX | 6.5% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.86× |
| Lots Of Coins Of Bronze (Metal)other · Mil Spec Grade | 29.0% | $15.48 25,784 BUX | 6.5% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $76.84 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExceedingly Rare 1.0%Restricted 2.5%Covert 3.5%Classified 17.5%Mil Spec Grade 75.5%best hit —