Mystic Moonlight
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$46.48
77,433 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $41.83 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
40.98%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
7.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bracelet (Sapphire)other · Classified | 1 in 100 | $890 1,482,740 BUX | 21.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Labyrinth (Lapis Lazuli)other · Restricted | 1 in 50 | $537 894,642 BUX | 25.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 33 | $375 624,750 BUX | 26.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Chalice (Cobalt)other · Consumer Grade | 1 in 13 | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 8.2% | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| Gems of Sapphire (Gemstone)other · Classified | 1 in 11 | $32.56 54,250 BUX | 7.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| Clarity Cube (Cobalt)other · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $29.00 48,314 BUX | 6.9% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| Locket (Lapis Lazuli)other · Consumer Grade | 27.0% | $5.00 8,330 BUX | 3.2% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| Nugget (Nickel)other · Industrial Grade | 40.0% | $0.80 1,333 BUX | 0.8% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $46.48 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 10.0%Restricted 2.0%Mil Spec Grade 3.0%Consumer Grade 35.0%Industrial Grade 50.0%best hit —