Champagne Caper
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$64.60
107,623 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $58.14 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
53.28%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 20 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Sunglassesother · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 400 | $2,100 3,498,600 BUX | 9.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 500 Gold Ring (Gold)other · Covert | 1 in 57 | $500 833,000 BUX | 15.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Ruby-Infused Wine Gobletother · Covert | 1 in 33 | $350 583,100 BUX | 18.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Coffee Mug (Sapphire)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 20 | $130 216,580 BUX | 11.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| Griffin Goblet (Gold)other · Classified | 10.0% | $75.00 124,950 BUX | 12.9% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× |
| Grail (Garnet)other · Restricted | 12.5% | $44.00 73,304 BUX | 9.5% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| Chalice (Cobalt)other · Consumer Grade | 12.5% | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 9.2% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.60× |
| Gems of Citrine (Quartz)other · Classified | 55.0% | $15.94 26,550 BUX | 15.1% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $64.60 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExceedingly Rare 0.3%Covert 4.8%Industrial Grade 5.0%Classified 65.0%Restricted 12.5%Consumer Grade 12.5%best hit —