Light as Air
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$126.48
210,708 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $113.83 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
51.57%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pegasus Prism (Pearl)other · Covert | 1 in 20 | $700 1,166,200 BUX | 30.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Rocks Of Opal (Silica Mineral)other · Mil Spec Grade | 10.0% | $214 357,200 BUX | 18.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| Coin From The Lost City (Mythril)other · Mil Spec Grade | 10.5% | $199 331,534 BUX | 18.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| Adamantium Featherother · Consumer Grade | 12.5% | $143 238,238 BUX | 15.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| Dice (Tungsten)other · Industrial Grade | 15.0% | $77.00 128,282 BUX | 10.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| Pin (Palladium)other · Mil Spec Grade | 17.5% | $36.00 59,976 BUX | 5.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| Rose Quartz Ring (Quartz)other · Industrial Grade | 29.5% | $2.60 4,332 BUX | 0.7% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.69× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $126 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 38.0%Consumer Grade 12.5%Industrial Grade 44.5%best hit —