Basket Bounty
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$51.57
85,921 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $46.42 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.68%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 20 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chef's knife (Adamantium)other · Restricted | 1 in 67 | $549 914,634 BUX | 17.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Origami Swan (Tungsten)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 40 | $220 366,520 BUX | 11.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Adamantium Featherother · Consumer Grade | 1 in 17 | $143 238,238 BUX | 18.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| Coffee Mug (Sapphire)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 13 | $130 216,580 BUX | 22.4% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.50× |
| Chalice (Cobalt)other · Consumer Grade | 12.0% | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 11.1% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| Copper Kettleother · Restricted | 20.0% | $18.98 31,621 BUX | 8.2% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.25× |
| Teaspoon (Tungsten)other · Consumer Grade | 50.0% | $9.49 15,810 BUX | 10.2% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $51.57 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRestricted 21.5%Exceedingly Rare 2.5%Consumer Grade 68.0%Industrial Grade 8.0%best hit —