Restricted Realms
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.16
50,244 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $27.14 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
176.72%
22 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 22 openings and 2.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precious Stone of Onyx (Gemstone)other · Classified | 1 in 100 | $531 884,238 BUX | 19.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| Oracle Orb (Obsidian)other · Restricted | 1 in 25 | $165 274,890 BUX | 24.3% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| Lots Of Coins Of Chromium (Metal)other · Classified | 1 in 13 | $42.56 70,910 BUX | 11.8% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| Obelisk (Obsidian)other · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $34.00 56,644 BUX | 12.5% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× |
| Batch Of Mercury (Liquid)other · Classified | 12.5% | $25.55 42,560 BUX | 11.8% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.82× |
| Bronze Selfie Stickother · Restricted | 15.0% | $18.00 29,988 BUX | 9.9% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× |
| Obelisk (Onyx)other · Industrial Grade | 50.0% | $5.50 9,163 BUX | 10.1% | 8 | 11.0 | 0.73× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $30.16 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 21.0%Restricted 19.0%Industrial Grade 60.0%best hit $531 (17.60x)