Turbulent Twist
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$17.16
28,587 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $15.44 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
20.01%
9 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 9 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titan Totem (Titanium)other · Special | 1 in 1,000 | $300 499,800 BUX | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Origami Swan (Tungsten)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 250 | $220 366,520 BUX | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Adamantium Featherother · Consumer Grade | 1 in 100 | $143 238,238 BUX | 9.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Playing Cards (Titanium)other · Covert | 1 in 67 | $98.00 163,268 BUX | 9.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Dice (Tungsten)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 50 | $77.00 128,282 BUX | 10.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Tin man's heartother · Restricted | 1 in 20 | $49.00 81,634 BUX | 15.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Ninja Star Ornament (Titanium)other · Classified | 1 in 13 | $44.00 73,304 BUX | 21.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Arrow (Amethyst)other · Consumer Grade | 22.5% | $11.70 19,492 BUX | 17.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| Coins Of Steel (Metal)other · Mil Spec Grade | 60.0% | $2.40 4,000 BUX | 9.3% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.48× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $17.16 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedSpecial 0.1%Exceedingly Rare 0.4%Consumer Grade 23.5%Covert 1.5%Industrial Grade 2.0%Restricted 5.0%Classified 7.5%Mil Spec Grade 60.0%best hit —