Geological Pursuit
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$51.66
86,066 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $46.49 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
6.78%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
4.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oculus of Olympus (Opal)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 1,000 | $1,800 2,998,800 BUX | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor)other · Special | 1 in 250 | $1,000 1,666,000 BUX | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Palladium Palaceother · Covert | 1 in 40 | $445 741,370 BUX | 23.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Oracle Orb (Obsidian)other · Restricted | 1 in 25 | $165 274,890 BUX | 14.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Lots Of Gems Of Zircon (Quartz)other · Classified | 1 in 17 | $100 166,848 BUX | 12.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| A Geologist's Rejected Diamond (Diamond)other · Restricted | 1 in 14 | $88.00 146,608 BUX | 13.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Crown (Cobalt)other · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $44.00 73,304 BUX | 9.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Chalice (Cobalt)other · Consumer Grade | 10.0% | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 9.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Gilded Garnet Globe (Garnet)other · Industrial Grade | 60.0% | $3.50 5,831 BUX | 4.5% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.67× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $51.66 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExceedingly Rare 0.1%Special 0.4%Covert 2.5%Restricted 11.0%Classified 6.0%Industrial Grade 70.0%Consumer Grade 10.0%best hit —