Island Betrayal
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$33.72
56,180 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $30.35 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.25%
90 openings, odds method
Variance
7.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 90 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor)other · Special | 1 in 667 | $1,000 1,666,000 BUX | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Ruby-Encrusted Daggerother · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 286 | $770 1,282,820 BUX | 8.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Coin (Gold)other · Covert | 1 in 200 | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 10.7% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| 500 Gold Ring (Gold)other · Covert | 1 in 100 | $500 833,000 BUX | 16.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| Palace Pendant (Peridot)other · Covert | 1 in 33 | $200 333,200 BUX | 19.8% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| Lots Of Gems Of Citrine (Quartz)other · Classified | 1 in 17 | $73.71 122,805 BUX | 14.6% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× |
| Cipher (Citrine)other · Mil Spec Grade | 14.0% | $30.00 49,980 BUX | 13.8% | 17 | 12.6 | 1.35× |
| Small Logs Of Oak (Wood)other · Consumer Grade | 75.0% | $4.38 7,300 BUX | 10.8% | 66 | 67.5 | 0.98× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $33.72 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedSpecial 0.1%Exceedingly Rare 0.4%Covert 4.5%Classified 6.0%Mil Spec Grade 14.0%Consumer Grade 75.0%best hit $649 (19.25x)