Cryptic Camouflage
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$32.22
53,677 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $29.00 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
140.20%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
10.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal From An Alien Planet (Lithium)other · Special | 1 in 10,000 | $5,000 8,330,000 BUX | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Prism (Adamantium)other · Covert | 1 in 345 | $720 1,200,000 BUX | 7.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| Pegasus Prism (Pearl)other · Covert | 1 in 250 | $700 1,166,200 BUX | 9.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Prism (Platinum)other · Classified | 1 in 100 | $599 997,934 BUX | 20.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Mystical Monolith (Moonstone)other · Covert | 1 in 43 | $240 399,840 BUX | 19.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| Pearl Prism Pendantother · Industrial Grade | 1 in 17 | $76.00 126,616 BUX | 15.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| Block Of Zinc (Metal)other · Mil Spec Grade | 15.0% | $27.25 45,402 BUX | 14.1% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× |
| Lots Of Nodules Of Opal (Silica Mineral)other · Mil Spec Grade | 75.0% | $4.60 7,664 BUX | 11.9% | 21 | 18.0 | 1.17× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Lots Of Nodules Of Opal (Silica Mineral)other · Mil Spec Grademaxz9590$32.2253,677 BUX$4.607,664 BUX0.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $32.22 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedSpecial 0.0%Covert 3.0%Classified 1.0%Industrial Grade 6.0%Mil Spec Grade 90.0%best hit $720 (22.36x)