Lucky Dune
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.68
42,784 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $23.11 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.24%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
6.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coin (Gold)other · Covert | 1 in 100 | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 28.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Throne (Topaz)other · Restricted | 1 in 25 | $50.00 83,300 BUX | 8.7% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| Grail (Garnet)other · Restricted | 1 in 20 | $44.00 73,304 BUX | 9.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| Totem (Topaz)other · Mil Spec Grade | 15.0% | $32.00 53,312 BUX | 20.8% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| Gauntlet (Garnet)other · Restricted | 20.0% | $24.00 39,984 BUX | 20.8% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.39× |
| Slab Of Granite (Rock)other · Consumer Grade | 55.0% | $5.13 8,550 BUX | 12.2% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.81× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $25.68 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 1.0%Restricted 29.0%Mil Spec Grade 15.0%Consumer Grade 55.0%best hit —