Lucky Loot
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$290.67
484,260 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $261.60 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
57.70%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amulet of Atlantis (Amethyst)other · Special | 1 in 50 | $3,884 6,470,694 BUX | 29.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Prism (Adamantium)other · Covert | 1 in 14 | $720 1,200,000 BUX | 19.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Coin (Gold)other · Covert | 1 in 13 | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 19.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| Palladium Palaceother · Covert | 10.0% | $445 741,370 BUX | 17.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Palace Pendant (Peridot)other · Covert | 12.5% | $200 333,200 BUX | 9.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Throne (Topaz)other · Restricted | 16.5% | $50.00 83,300 BUX | 3.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Lots Of Coins Of Gold (Metal)other · Classified | 19.0% | $16.83 28,039 BUX | 1.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| Artifact (Aluminum)other · Industrial Grade | 25.0% | $2.55 4,248 BUX | 0.2% | 2 | 1.0 | 2.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $291 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedSpecial 2.0%Covert 37.5%Restricted 16.5%Classified 19.0%Industrial Grade 25.0%best hit $649 (2.23x)