Winter Whisper
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.00
1,659 BUX
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $0.90 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.33%
1,274 openings, odds method
Variance
6.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,274 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 2,000 | $62.72 104,491 BUX | 3.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 500 | $43.75 72,887 BUX | 9.8% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.39× |
| Sticker | aumaN (Foil) | Katowice 2019sticker · Remarkable | 1 in 33 | $5.92 9,862 BUX | 19.8% | 44 | 38.2 | 1.15× |
| AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $1.31 2,182 BUX | 11.7% | 93 | 101.9 | 0.91× |
| Sticker | Freeze (Lenticular)sticker · Extraordinary | 10.0% | $1.12 1,865 BUX | 12.5% | 125 | 127.4 | 0.98× |
| UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $1.08 1,799 BUX | 12.1% | 128 | 127.4 | 1.00× |
| Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 68.8% | $0.40 666 BUX | 30.7% | 883 | 875.9 | 1.01× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $1.00 | 89.98% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedindustrial 0.1%Classified 0.2%Remarkable 3.0%restricted 18.0%Extraordinary 10.0%mil spec 68.8%best hit —