Glacial Gear
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.58
2,628 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1.42 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.80%
639 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 639 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 500 | $62.72 104,491 BUX | 8.8% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| eSports 2013 Winter Casecontainer · Base Grade | 1 in 40 | $6.51 10,845 BUX | 11.5% | 15 | 16.0 | 0.94× |
| Sticker | COLDYY1 (Foil) | London 2018sticker · Remarkable | 1 in 33 | $5.20 8,663 BUX | 11.0% | 19 | 19.2 | 0.99× |
| Souvenir Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 31 | $4.94 8,230 BUX | 11.1% | 18 | 20.4 | 0.88× |
| StatTrak™ AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 21 | $3.55 5,914 BUX | 12.0% | 39 | 30.7 | 1.27× |
| Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 86.3% | $0.75 1,249 BUX | 45.6% | 548 | 551.5 | 0.99× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.582,628 BUX$0.751,249 BUX0.48x
Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Gradeuser-81c4ab$1.582,628 BUX$0.751,249 BUX0.48x
Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.582,628 BUX$0.751,249 BUX0.48x
Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.582,628 BUX$0.751,249 BUX0.48x
Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.582,628 BUX$0.751,249 BUX0.48x
Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade2ez4me$1.582,628 BUX$0.751,249 BUX0.48x
Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.582,628 BUX$0.751,249 BUX0.48x
Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.582,628 BUX$0.751,249 BUX0.48x
Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.582,628 BUX$0.751,249 BUX0.48x
StatTrak™ AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$1.582,628 BUX$3.555,914 BUX2.25x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $1.58 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedindustrial 0.2%Base Grade 2.5%Remarkable 3.0%Industrial Grade 3.2%Restricted 4.8%Mil Spec Grade 86.3%best hit —