Industrial Revolution
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.22
369 BUX
Advertised RTP
89.93%
EV $0.20 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.76%
1,524 openings, odds method
Variance
28.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
100.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,580 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 10,000 | $82.54 137,511 BUX | 4.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $65.05 108,373 BUX | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| MP7 | Full Stop (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec | 1 in 5,000 | $34.31 57,160 BUX | 3.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 1,000 | $6.33 10,545 BUX | 3.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 625 | $4.83 8,046 BUX | 3.9% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| G3SG1 | Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 500 | $1.15 1,915 BUX | 1.2% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.95× |
| StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 100 | $0.77 1,282 BUX | 3.9% | 17 | 15.8 | 1.08× |
| Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 67 | $0.57 949 BUX | 4.3% | 24 | 23.7 | 1.01× |
| Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 97.0% | $0.15 249 BUX | 72.8% | 1,534 | 1532.6 | 1.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.22369 BUX$0.15249 BUX0.67x
Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Gradesad_man17$0.22369 BUX$0.15249 BUX0.67x
Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Gradeuser-19d0a7$0.22369 BUX$0.15249 BUX0.67x
Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Gradesad_man17$0.22369 BUX$0.57949 BUX2.57x
Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Gradeuser-19d0a7$0.22369 BUX$0.15249 BUX0.67x
Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Gradesad_man17$0.22369 BUX$0.15249 BUX0.67x
Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.22369 BUX$0.15249 BUX0.67x
Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.22369 BUX$0.15249 BUX0.67x
Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.22369 BUX$0.15249 BUX0.67x
Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Gradeuser-dedb78$0.22369 BUX$0.15249 BUX0.67x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $0.22 | 89.93% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMil Spec Grade 1.2%covert 0.0%milspec 0.0%Legendary 0.1%classified 0.2%Consumer Grade 1.5%Industrial Grade 97.0%best hit —