Velocity Revolution
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.27
2,117 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $1.14 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.90%
1,512 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
34.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,512 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 154 | $42.82 71,338 BUX | 24.3% | 5 | 9.8 | 0.51× |
| MP5-SD | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 25 | $3.35 5,581 BUX | 11.7% | 60 | 60.5 | 0.99× |
| P2000 | Space Race (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 22 | $3.14 5,231 BUX | 12.4% | 51 | 68.0 | 0.75× |
| Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 25.6% | $1.08 1,799 BUX | 24.2% | 414 | 387.1 | 1.07× |
| M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 31.5% | $0.60 999 BUX | 16.5% | 484 | 476.3 | 1.02× |
| R8 Revolver | Nitro (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 33.8% | $0.37 616 BUX | 10.9% | 498 | 510.3 | 0.98× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Nitro (Factory New)weapon · Industrial GradeLidthyggepågeden$1.272,117 BUX$0.37616 BUX0.29x
Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.272,117 BUX$1.081,799 BUX0.85x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $1.27 | 90.01% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.7%Industrial Grade 37.8%restricted 36.0%Mil Spec Grade 25.6%best hit —