Guarded Antiquities
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$51.56
85,901 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $46.40 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
50.67%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
8.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod of Ragnarok (Rhodium)other · Special | 1 in 1,000 | $3,300 5,497,800 BUX | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Throne of Thor (Topaz)other · Special | 1 in 250 | $1,500 2,499,000 BUX | 12.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Coin From The Lost City (Mythril)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 29 | $199 331,534 BUX | 15.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Sunburst Scepter (Sapphire)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 25 | $135 224,910 BUX | 11.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Coffee Mug (Sapphire)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 25 | $130 216,580 BUX | 11.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Playing Cards (Titanium)other · Covert | 1 in 13 | $98.00 163,268 BUX | 16.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| Clarity Cube (Cobalt)other · Industrial Grade | 30.0% | $29.00 48,314 BUX | 18.7% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
| Heirloom (Hematite)other · Industrial Grade | 50.0% | $6.00 9,996 BUX | 6.5% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $51.56 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedSpecial 0.5%Mil Spec Grade 7.5%Industrial Grade 84.0%Covert 8.0%best hit —