Phantom Puzzle
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$192.77
321,147 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $173.49 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
20.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elysium Earring (Emerald)other · Covert | 1 in 10,000 | $44.4K 74,043,704 BUX | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Precious Stones of Emerald (Gemstone)other · Covert | 1 in 526 | $14.7K 24,502,500 BUX | 16.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Secret Agent's Uranium Coin (Uranium)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 125 | $3,200 5,331,200 BUX | 14.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Fountain of Fortune (Fluorite)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 100 | $2,700 4,498,200 BUX | 15.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Jewel of Jotunheim (Jade)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 33 | $850 1,416,100 BUX | 14.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Antique Uranium Marble Set (Uranium)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 20 | $140 233,240 BUX | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Vintage Uranium Glass Vase (Uranium)other · Consumer Grade | 40.0% | $80.00 133,280 BUX | 18.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Bracelet (Beryl)other · Mil Spec Grade | 50.0% | $48.00 79,968 BUX | 13.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $193 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.2%Exceedingly Rare 4.8%Industrial Grade 5.0%Consumer Grade 40.0%Mil Spec Grade 50.0%