Celebratory Treasures
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$79.95
133,194 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $71.95 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
476.55%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
8.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Couple Of Unpolished Pearls (Organic Gemstone)other · Special | 1 in 1,000 | $4,300 7,163,800 BUX | 6.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| Precious Stone of Ruby (Gemstone)other · Covert | 1 in 250 | $2,303 3,836,500 BUX | 12.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Bracelet (Sapphire)other · Classified | 1 in 67 | $890 1,482,740 BUX | 18.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Chef's knife (Adamantium)other · Restricted | 1 in 33 | $549 914,634 BUX | 22.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Pearl Prism Pendantother · Industrial Grade | 1 in 11 | $76.00 126,616 BUX | 9.5% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.85× |
| Amulet (Aquamarine)other · Restricted | 36.0% | $42.00 69,972 BUX | 21.0% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| Medallion (Bronze)other · Mil Spec Grade | 50.0% | $13.33 22,200 BUX | 9.3% | 9 | 6.0 | 1.50× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Couple Of Unpolished Pearls (Organic Gemstone)other · Special$79.95133,194 BUX$4,3007,163,800 BUX53.78x
Latest dropsnewest first
Couple Of Unpolished Pearls (Organic Gemstone)other · Special$79.95133,194 BUX$4,3007,163,800 BUX53.78x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $79.95 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedSpecial 0.1%Covert 0.4%Classified 1.5%Restricted 39.0%Industrial Grade 9.0%Mil Spec Grade 50.0%best hit $4,300 (53.78x)